Nutrien reported net earnings of $580mn in 4Q25, up from $118mn a year earlier, with diluted earnings per share of $0.83 compared to $0.31 in 4Q24. FY25 net earnings reached $2,297mn, up from $700mn in the prior year. The company reported sales of $5,340mn in 4Q25, up 5% YoY, and $26,885mn in FY25 (+4% YoY). Gross margin increased to $1,888mn in 4Q25, up 19% YoY. For FY25, gross margin totaled $8,347mn, up 11% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA reached $1,277mn in 4Q25 (+21% YoY) and $6,046mn in FY25 (+13% YoY). Expenses declined 18% YoY in 4Q25 and 19% YoY in FY25. The increase in 4Q earnings and adjusted EBITDA was primarily driven by higher fertilizer prices and stronger potash sales volumes. In FY25, higher fertilizer prices and increased volumes supported margin growth. The Retail segment reported sales of $3,144mn in 4Q25 (-1% YoY), while adjusted EBITDA declined 9% YoY to $311mn. In FY25, Retail sales totaled $17,620mn (-1% YoY), with adjusted EBITDA of $1,736mn (+2% YoY). Crop nutrient, seed, and crop protection product sales declined in 4Q25 due to lower volumes. For FY25, crop nutrient sales increased. In the Potash segment, sales volumes increased in both 4Q25 and FY25. Net sales rose 37% YoY to $736mn in 4Q25 and reached $3,593mn in FY25 (+20% YoY). Adjusted EBITDA increased 53% YoY to $445mn in 4Q25 and 22% YoY to $2,254mn in FY25. The net selling price was $305/t in 4Q25, compared to $270/t in 4Q24, while the FY25 average price in North America was $286/t. The offshore average potash price was $235/t in FY25. China accounted for 11% of FY25 Canpotex potash sales, compared to 13% a year earlier, while Latin America represented 39% of FY25 Canpotex sales. In the Nitrogen segment, net sales reached $1,093mn in 4Q25 (+11% YoY) and $4,187mn in FY25 (+17% YoY). Adjusted EBITDA increased 11% YoY to $521mn in 4Q25 and 15% YoY to $2,147mn in FY25. Nitrogen sales volumes declined in 4Q25 due to a shutdown at the Trinidad facility but increased in FY25, supported by higher production and lower-cost debottlenecking initiatives. Net selling prices per ton increased in both 4Q25 and FY25 for ammonia, urea, and solutions. The Phosphate segment reported a 17% YoY increase in net sales to $483mn and a 24% YoY increase in adjusted EBITDA to $107mn in 4Q25. In FY25, net sales reached $1,734mn (+5% YoY), while adjusted EBITDA declined 1% YoY to $382mn. Both sales volumes and net selling prices for phosphates were higher compared to 2024. Nutrien is reviewing strategic options for its phosphate business, with a decision expected in 2026. The company sold its 50% stake in Profertil for $0.6bn in December 2025. The Trinidad and New Madrid nitrogen facilities are under review as part of an assessment of non-core assets, as both plants generate marginal free cash flow. The company ended the quarter with net debt of $11.3bn. Nutrien repurchased approximately 2% of its outstanding shares in 2025 for $551mn. The Board approved a 1% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.55 per share and authorized a new NCIB to repurchase up to 5% of outstanding common shares over the next 12 months.
Nutrien provided FY26 guidance, including potash sales volumes of 14.1–14.8mt (vs. 14.25mt in 2025), Retail adjusted EBITDA of $1.75–1.95bn (vs. $1.74bn in 2025), nitrogen sales volumes of 9.2–9.7mt (vs. 10.89mt in 2025), and phosphate sales volumes of 2.4–2.6mt (vs. 2.36mt in 2025). Strong global potash demand drove shipments to 74.5mt in 2025 and is expected to reach 74–77mt in 2026. The global nitrogen market had a strong start to 2026, supporting the positive demand trend. The phosphate market was also strong in 1Q26, as Chinese export restrictions persist and production costs remain elevated.
The outlook for potash and nitrogen remains positive for 2026, as the company continues to improve efficiencies. We raise our DCF-based 12-month price target to US$72.2 from US$65.4 and downgrade our rating from Buy to Hold.
27 Feb 2026
Nutrien 4Q25: Solid Earnings Amid Volume Growth and Cost Controls
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Nutrien 4Q25: Solid Earnings Amid Volume Growth and Cost Controls
Nutrien reported net earnings of $580mn in 4Q25, up from $118mn a year earlier, with diluted earnings per share of $0.83 compared to $0.31 in 4Q24. FY25 net earnings reached $2,297mn, up from $700mn in the prior year. The company reported sales of $5,340mn in 4Q25, up 5% YoY, and $26,885mn in FY25 (+4% YoY). Gross margin increased to $1,888mn in 4Q25, up 19% YoY. For FY25, gross margin totaled $8,347mn, up 11% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA reached $1,277mn in 4Q25 (+21% YoY) and $6,046mn in FY25 (+13% YoY). Expenses declined 18% YoY in 4Q25 and 19% YoY in FY25. The increase in 4Q earnings and adjusted EBITDA was primarily driven by higher fertilizer prices and stronger potash sales volumes. In FY25, higher fertilizer prices and increased volumes supported margin growth. The Retail segment reported sales of $3,144mn in 4Q25 (-1% YoY), while adjusted EBITDA declined 9% YoY to $311mn. In FY25, Retail sales totaled $17,620mn (-1% YoY), with adjusted EBITDA of $1,736mn (+2% YoY). Crop nutrient, seed, and crop protection product sales declined in 4Q25 due to lower volumes. For FY25, crop nutrient sales increased. In the Potash segment, sales volumes increased in both 4Q25 and FY25. Net sales rose 37% YoY to $736mn in 4Q25 and reached $3,593mn in FY25 (+20% YoY). Adjusted EBITDA increased 53% YoY to $445mn in 4Q25 and 22% YoY to $2,254mn in FY25. The net selling price was $305/t in 4Q25, compared to $270/t in 4Q24, while the FY25 average price in North America was $286/t. The offshore average potash price was $235/t in FY25. China accounted for 11% of FY25 Canpotex potash sales, compared to 13% a year earlier, while Latin America represented 39% of FY25 Canpotex sales. In the Nitrogen segment, net sales reached $1,093mn in 4Q25 (+11% YoY) and $4,187mn in FY25 (+17% YoY). Adjusted EBITDA increased 11% YoY to $521mn in 4Q25 and 15% YoY to $2,147mn in FY25. Nitrogen sales volumes declined in 4Q25 due to a shutdown at the Trinidad facility but increased in FY25, supported by higher production and lower-cost debottlenecking initiatives. Net selling prices per ton increased in both 4Q25 and FY25 for ammonia, urea, and solutions. The Phosphate segment reported a 17% YoY increase in net sales to $483mn and a 24% YoY increase in adjusted EBITDA to $107mn in 4Q25. In FY25, net sales reached $1,734mn (+5% YoY), while adjusted EBITDA declined 1% YoY to $382mn. Both sales volumes and net selling prices for phosphates were higher compared to 2024. Nutrien is reviewing strategic options for its phosphate business, with a decision expected in 2026. The company sold its 50% stake in Profertil for $0.6bn in December 2025. The Trinidad and New Madrid nitrogen facilities are under review as part of an assessment of non-core assets, as both plants generate marginal free cash flow. The company ended the quarter with net debt of $11.3bn. Nutrien repurchased approximately 2% of its outstanding shares in 2025 for $551mn. The Board approved a 1% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.55 per share and authorized a new NCIB to repurchase up to 5% of outstanding common shares over the next 12 months.
Nutrien provided FY26 guidance, including potash sales volumes of 14.1–14.8mt (vs. 14.25mt in 2025), Retail adjusted EBITDA of $1.75–1.95bn (vs. $1.74bn in 2025), nitrogen sales volumes of 9.2–9.7mt (vs. 10.89mt in 2025), and phosphate sales volumes of 2.4–2.6mt (vs. 2.36mt in 2025). Strong global potash demand drove shipments to 74.5mt in 2025 and is expected to reach 74–77mt in 2026. The global nitrogen market had a strong start to 2026, supporting the positive demand trend. The phosphate market was also strong in 1Q26, as Chinese export restrictions persist and production costs remain elevated.
The outlook for potash and nitrogen remains positive for 2026, as the company continues to improve efficiencies. We raise our DCF-based 12-month price target to US$72.2 from US$65.4 and downgrade our rating from Buy to Hold.