21 Jan 2026
Actinver Research - Kimberly-Clark de Mexico: 4Q25 Preview
Amid a more favorable FX backdrop, we are revising our estimates modestly upward ahead of results. After a year marked by significant FX volatility and hedge-related pressures, the scenario into 4Q25 has shifted meaningfully. Following the sharp depreciation observed at the beginning of last year —when the MXN moved from the high-mid teens and closed the quarter at an average exchange rate of 20.4 — Kimberly-Clark de México implemented FX hedges that weighed on margins through most of 2025, particularly up to 3Q25.
In contrast, during 4Q25 the average exchange rate stood at P$18.3, resulting in a solid tailwind for Kimberly-Clark de México: (i) a materially stronger MXN vs. prior periods, coupled with the absence of hedge carry-over effects that had pressured margins in denominated in USD and minimal revenue exposure to the currency, KCM remains highly sensitive to FX movements. We estimate that each P$1 appreciation/depreciation in the exchange rate impacts gross margin by c.140bps, underscoring the significance of the current FX environment.
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Actinver Research - Kimberly-Clark de Mexico: 4Q25 Preview
- Published:
21 Jan 2026 -
Author:
Antonio Hernandez | Enrique Covarrubias -
Pages:
5 -
Amid a more favorable FX backdrop, we are revising our estimates modestly upward ahead of results. After a year marked by significant FX volatility and hedge-related pressures, the scenario into 4Q25 has shifted meaningfully. Following the sharp depreciation observed at the beginning of last year —when the MXN moved from the high-mid teens and closed the quarter at an average exchange rate of 20.4 — Kimberly-Clark de México implemented FX hedges that weighed on margins through most of 2025, particularly up to 3Q25.
In contrast, during 4Q25 the average exchange rate stood at P$18.3, resulting in a solid tailwind for Kimberly-Clark de México: (i) a materially stronger MXN vs. prior periods, coupled with the absence of hedge carry-over effects that had pressured margins in denominated in USD and minimal revenue exposure to the currency, KCM remains highly sensitive to FX movements. We estimate that each P$1 appreciation/depreciation in the exchange rate impacts gross margin by c.140bps, underscoring the significance of the current FX environment.