VAR’s Q1 report was broadly neutral, with EBITDA 2% below consensus, unchanged guidance, and the dividend maintained. However, Q2 is shaping up to be a standout quarter, with >20% upside to current consensus driven by elevated premiums to dated Brent and an expected crude overlift. In our base case, we also anticipate a meaningful extraordinary dividend towards year-end. That said, near-term share price performance is likely to be driven more by developments in the Strait of Hormuz than by compa ....
