Topps Group (TPT LN) - Q3 Trading Update

Topps Group released a Q3 update for the 39 weeks to the June period end confirming trading continues to remain challenging with total sales in Q3 down 6.9% yoy and down 6.2% ytd.

Topps Tiles - Signs of stabilisation in Q324

Topps Tiles’ (TPT’s) brand strength continues to shine through with ongoing market share gains versus a weak repair, maintenance and improvement sector. There is also some encouragement that overall revenue trends were relatively unchanged through Q324, with no deterioration versus what was reported for the first seven weeks, albeit it remains challenging overall. For the individual group companies, the trends and narrative are consistent with recent updates: Omni-channel remains weak given the

Zeus Building Products and Construction Round-Up - 2 July 2024

As we close off the first half of 2024, economic data has provided mixed signals with signs of improvements, albeit from a low base. GDP grew 0.7% in Q1 (QoQ), however, a timelier monthly estimate for April indicated no growth due to a rise in Services being offset by a fall in Production and Construction. This slightly contradicts what Construction PMI is reporting however, which saw activity rise at fastest pace in 2 years, with the index at 54.7 (April: 53.0). Residential projects grew only m

Zeus Building Products and Construction Round-Up - 5 June 2024

The positive momentum in macro data seen at the start of the year is beginning to wane as the economy increasingly looks for a catalyst to elicit any sustained improvement. Banks are continuing to lend more cautiously following the pre-emptive cuts in mortgage rates seen at the start of the year. January saw the typical 2-year fixed mortgage rate fall to just over 4.7%, however, recent weeks have seen this rise back to 5% as investors expect only one rate cut for 2024. This is starting to feed t

Topps Group (TPT LN) - Interim results & updated strategy

Topps Group has announced its interim results to March period end highlighting a good relative performance against a tough backdrop as sales fell 5.8% yoy to £122.8m versus c. 10-15% for the wider market, according to management. Adj. PBT of £3.1m is down 30% yoy and covers 40% of Zeus’s FY24 forecast, implying Topps will need to see some improvement in the operating environment to meet current estimates, which Zeus keep unchanged. The big news comes from the updated ‘Mission 365’ strategy, whic

Topps Tiles - Looking to the future

Topps Tiles’ (TPT’s) H124 results demonstrate the effects of the general market softness of spend on repairs, maintenance and improvement, as evidenced by other companies and external data. Of more importance is TPT’s updated strategy, which includes targeting new markets and further/better leverage of existing brands, and ‘medium-term’ financial goals, the most notable being an indicated more than quadrupling of adjusted PBT from our FY24 estimates. Management points to more encouraging forward

Zeus Building Products and Construction Round-Up - 3 May 2024

Market sentiment turned more cautious in the month of April, particularly regarding interest rates, with economic data producing mixed results. Despite housing transactions and net mortgage approvals continuing an upward trend, with the latter at an 18-month high and +20.1% YoY and +1.4% MoM to 61.3k (seasonally adjusted), Nationwide’s House Price Index dropped 0.4% MoM (seasonally adjusted) in April, below the +0.2% expected. This comes as mortgage lenders nudge rates up to factor in the potent

Topps Group (TPT LN) - Initiation: Market leader trading at cyclical lows

Topps Group is the UK’s largest specialist supplier and distributor of tiles and associated products to the UK’s domestic and commercial markets. Each of the last three years the Group has successfully achieved record revenue in a market that’s seen recent volume declines and regional peers enter administration. Following the right sizing of its business, Topps Group is now well positioned to capitalise on the economic recovery and continue taking share from competitors, supported by its global

Topps Tiles - Market tough through H124

Topps Tiles’ (TPT’s) H124 update shows that trading deteriorated further in Q224, following the weakness that began in Q124. Management attributes the decline to the soft external environment as noted by others in the repairs, maintenance and improvement market, other home improvement/DIY retailers and data from the Office for National Statistics. For the individual businesses, the trends remain consistent with previous updates: strong revenue growth for Online Pure Play offset by weakness in To

Topps Tiles - Outperforming weak market in Q124

Topps Tiles’ (TPT’s) Q124 update indicates that trading was a little softer towards the end of the quarter than was reported for the first eight weeks, ie at the time of the FY23 results. However, the end of Q124 had a more challenging comparative than the start of the period since TPT enjoyed stronger sales as Q123 progressed. The ongoing revenue weakness is not surprising given the weak repairs, maintenance and installation market backdrop, but management believes the strength of its offer and

LIBERUM: Topps Tiles: Tough backdrop continues, but profit forecasts unchanged

PANMURE LIBERUM: The Panmure Liberum Leisure Digest: Space for optimism

One Media iP Group - Interim results

One Media iP’s (OMiP) results reflect continued resilience in the core music royalty business, albeit with growth somewhat tempered by changes to Amazon Music’s fee structure (the full effects of which have now been felt) and the prioritisation of resources on the group’s anti-piracy software (TCAT), where investment in enhancing the product offering has yet to translate into a sales uplift. We consequently lower our revenue forecasts, which is partially offset at the EPS level in FY24E by effic

Warpaint London+ (W7L, House Stock at 586p) - Strong momentum continues

Morning Note – 28 June 2024

Morning Note – 4 July 2024

Halfords (HFD LN) - Pedalling hard against headwinds

Halfords FY24 results, announced yesterday, were broadly in line with our revised estimates from 29 February (on a total Group basis). There are plenty of positives to take from the results, including market share gains in all four sales categories, cost savings £5m ahead of target, and net debt (ex. leases) of £8.2m being £7.5m better than Zeus forecast.

PROGRESSIVE: Vertu Motors: Growth and value generation engine

The AGM trading update for the first three months of FY25 (to 31 May) confirms that Vertu has seen an encouraging start to the year and that management expects to report FY25 results in line with current market expectations. We maintain our forecasts. Vertu is seeing progress across its business, with used car values showing signs of a return to normal. Uncertainties remain, most notably regarding the Zero Emission Mandate, but the underlying story of growth-driven value remains firmly intact.

SSP Group+ (SSPG, House Stock at 165p) - Setting out the H2 profit bridge

Pharos Energy+ (PHAR, House Stock at 21p) - New CEO appointed

ME Group - Rolling out the next generation of photobooths

ME Group has reported a strong financial performance in FY 2022 (to October) driven by a significant increase in demand for instant vending services in the Photobooth and Laundry businesses, primarily in Continental Europe and the UK & Republic of Ireland. Profitability benefited from the recovery in demand, restructuring to remove unprofitable machines and higher pricing. Sales were up +21%, EBITDA +30% and adj. PBT +76%. Net cash was £34m at October 2022. The Group plans to roll out 10k next g

ME Group - Price rises and increased usage driving growth

ME Group has reported a strong set of H1 results with sales up +25%, adj. PBT +68%, adj. EPS +60% and ongoing DPS +14%. The strongest performances were in photobooths in Europe, which benefited from price rises and increased volumes, and laundry in the UK, where there was a +11% increase in the number of machines. This progress was achieved despite a near flat installed base in photobooths, with the anticipated roll-out of next generation photobooths delayed due to supply delays, and a steady in

ME Group - Modernising and growing the estate driving growth

During 2023, ME Group commenced the deployment of its next generation photobooths, which are integrated with the group’s newly developed proprietary software, gained market leadership in the Japanese photobooth market with an acquisition, continued to roll out laundry units with existing and new location partners, commenced a share buyback programme and gained entry into the FTSE 250. 2023 was a year of significant strategic and financial progress, with sales up 15%, EPS up 31% and net cash main

Finseta+ (FIN, House Stock at 42p) - Name change (formerly Cornerstone)

Card Factory - Look inside the card

Card Factory (CARD) is aiming to become the leading omnichannel retailer of greeting cards, gifts and celebration essentials in the UK as well as select international markets. In the UK, its extensive and growing store base has been reconfigured to accommodate enhanced product ranges, and its online capabilities have been revamped. Each of these provides the foundations for greater growth in isolation and for new omnichannel propositions. Management expects to complement its UK retail growth opp

Cornerstone FS+ (CSFS, House Stock at 40p) - FY23A results beat, further upgrades