Against a deterioration in the macro backdrop and a substantial increase in mortgage rates, we believe price-sensitive prospective buyers are likely to have adopted a wait-and-see approach and anticipate that the spring selling season will have been weaker than hoped across the sector. Having set our forecasts in early February, before the commencement of the US Iran war, we now anticipate that sales rates and margins in Gleeson Homes are likely to have been weaker than previously hoped. Accordingly, ahead of its upcoming update, we reduce our earnings forecasts by 16%-27% in each forecast year. We believe these revisions are already reflected in the share price, which is down 35% in the year to date and trading on a 50% discount to book value. Given the scale of this discount, we think now is a sensible time to Buy the shares. We also note that a potential US-Iran ceasefire could begin to reverse recent market volatility. We stay at Buy with an 483p TP.