One Health is a profitable, cash-generative independent provider of NHS-funded elective surgery, riding a structural wave of 7.3 million patients waiting for treatment in England. Revenues have grown at a CAGR of 18% over the last three years as One Health’s operating model using third party facilities has gained traction. It is planning to accelerate medium-term growth via a network of wholly owned surgical hubs, with construction of the first of these now underway. We estimate each hub could add £1.52.2m EBITDA per site and would be transformative to One Health. The current valuation of 9x FY27 EV/EBITDA materially undervalues the optionality of a six-hub rollout, which is entirely excluded from our conservative base-case forecasts. We initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation and an initial 12m Target Price of 288p based on the current business only. Successful execution of the Surgical Hubs roll out would create value several times the current market cap.
