Udemy reported revenue of $189.5mn in 4Q23, up 15% YoY, exceeding both guidance and our expectations. The company increased the number of business customers by 13% YoY to 15,726, while the Monthly Average Buyers number remained flat at 1.37mn, up 1% YoY. Total revenue reached $728.9mn in FY23, up 15.9% YoY, while Gross profit reached $309.6mn, up 18.5% YoY. Revenue reached $420.6mn in the Udemy Business (UB) segment, up 33.9% YoY, and $308.3mn, down 2.1% YoY in the Consumer segment. Total customers of the Udemy Business (UB) segment increased by 2.3% QoQ in 4Q from 15,378 in 3Q, while the number of Consumer segment customers declined by 2.1% QoQ from 1.41mn in 3Q. Udemy’s. Enterprise segment ARR increased by 25% YoY to $466mn with 106% Net Dollar Retention in 4Q23, compared to 115% NDR in 4Q22. The UB Large Customer Net Dollar Retention was 113% in 4Q23. The Enterprise segment reported $114.7mn revenue in 4Q23 with $79.1mn gross profit and 69% segment Gross margin. Consumer segment revenue was $74.9mn, flat YoY with $38.3mn Gross Profit and 51% Gross Margin in 4Q23. Udemy’s Adjusted EBITDA $4.0mn in 4Q23 compared to $8.2mn in 3Q23, and to a loss of $20.2mn in 4Q22. The results were affected by a negative effect of FX YoY (2% impact on Udemy Business revenue and 1% on total revenue). The 4Q24 result demonstrates an improvement in cost management with a 6% YoY decrease in S&M, 15.3% decline YoY in G&A, and a 1.5% decrease in R&D expenses. The company reported a strong balance sheet with cash and cash equivalents totaling $305.5mn at the end of the year, and marketable securities reached $171mn. The growth of stock-based compensation by 18.1% YoY looks rather higher compared to 15.9% YoY revenue growth in FY23. Udemy stated it acquired 10mn new learners to reach 69mn, and over 1,800 net new Enterprise customers to reach 15,726 in 2023. The list of new customers includes Airbus, Banco de Costa Rica, Canada Revenue Agency, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Globalsoft (India), Marriott International among others. In the Asian region, the company has new reseller partners such as Honda Motor, KAIST, Kobelco Construction Machinery, Korean Air. Udemy partnered with ServiceNow to integrate more than 75 ‘power skills’ courses into ServiceNow “Now Learning” platform. Udemy introduced a comprehensive Intelligent Skills Platform, which includes Udemy AI Learning Assistant, Udemy AI Skills Mapping and other enhancements for content creators and instructors. The company’s Board approved the share repurchase program for $100mn, a positive move for the stock, particularly considering the 8.4% YoY increase in number of shares as of 31/12/2023. The guidance for FY2024 assumes c. 7.6% dilution in the number of shares.
Udemy’s 1Q24 guidance includes $193-196mn revenue and breakeven at Adj EBITDA level. The FY24 revenue guidance is $795-810mn with 1.5-2.0% Adj EBITDA margin, including a 3% negative impact from FX. The Consumer segment shows a relatively flat YoY performance in the post-COVID environment, pushing our estimates on a more conservative side. Despite a high demand for reskilling, a consumer offering shall probably generate a better engagement. We updated our model keeping slightly lower growth rates for the Enterprise segment and flat for the Consumer segment. We believe the company will continue maintaining good cost control. We adjusted our forecasts and changed our 12-month price target to $13.76 from $15.6 per share. We rate the stock Buy.
20 Feb 2024
Udemy 4Q23: better margin, consumer segment to watch
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Udemy 4Q23: better margin, consumer segment to watch
Udemy reported revenue of $189.5mn in 4Q23, up 15% YoY, exceeding both guidance and our expectations. The company increased the number of business customers by 13% YoY to 15,726, while the Monthly Average Buyers number remained flat at 1.37mn, up 1% YoY. Total revenue reached $728.9mn in FY23, up 15.9% YoY, while Gross profit reached $309.6mn, up 18.5% YoY. Revenue reached $420.6mn in the Udemy Business (UB) segment, up 33.9% YoY, and $308.3mn, down 2.1% YoY in the Consumer segment. Total customers of the Udemy Business (UB) segment increased by 2.3% QoQ in 4Q from 15,378 in 3Q, while the number of Consumer segment customers declined by 2.1% QoQ from 1.41mn in 3Q. Udemy’s. Enterprise segment ARR increased by 25% YoY to $466mn with 106% Net Dollar Retention in 4Q23, compared to 115% NDR in 4Q22. The UB Large Customer Net Dollar Retention was 113% in 4Q23. The Enterprise segment reported $114.7mn revenue in 4Q23 with $79.1mn gross profit and 69% segment Gross margin. Consumer segment revenue was $74.9mn, flat YoY with $38.3mn Gross Profit and 51% Gross Margin in 4Q23. Udemy’s Adjusted EBITDA $4.0mn in 4Q23 compared to $8.2mn in 3Q23, and to a loss of $20.2mn in 4Q22. The results were affected by a negative effect of FX YoY (2% impact on Udemy Business revenue and 1% on total revenue). The 4Q24 result demonstrates an improvement in cost management with a 6% YoY decrease in S&M, 15.3% decline YoY in G&A, and a 1.5% decrease in R&D expenses. The company reported a strong balance sheet with cash and cash equivalents totaling $305.5mn at the end of the year, and marketable securities reached $171mn. The growth of stock-based compensation by 18.1% YoY looks rather higher compared to 15.9% YoY revenue growth in FY23. Udemy stated it acquired 10mn new learners to reach 69mn, and over 1,800 net new Enterprise customers to reach 15,726 in 2023. The list of new customers includes Airbus, Banco de Costa Rica, Canada Revenue Agency, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Globalsoft (India), Marriott International among others. In the Asian region, the company has new reseller partners such as Honda Motor, KAIST, Kobelco Construction Machinery, Korean Air. Udemy partnered with ServiceNow to integrate more than 75 ‘power skills’ courses into ServiceNow “Now Learning” platform. Udemy introduced a comprehensive Intelligent Skills Platform, which includes Udemy AI Learning Assistant, Udemy AI Skills Mapping and other enhancements for content creators and instructors. The company’s Board approved the share repurchase program for $100mn, a positive move for the stock, particularly considering the 8.4% YoY increase in number of shares as of 31/12/2023. The guidance for FY2024 assumes c. 7.6% dilution in the number of shares.
Udemy’s 1Q24 guidance includes $193-196mn revenue and breakeven at Adj EBITDA level. The FY24 revenue guidance is $795-810mn with 1.5-2.0% Adj EBITDA margin, including a 3% negative impact from FX. The Consumer segment shows a relatively flat YoY performance in the post-COVID environment, pushing our estimates on a more conservative side. Despite a high demand for reskilling, a consumer offering shall probably generate a better engagement. We updated our model keeping slightly lower growth rates for the Enterprise segment and flat for the Consumer segment. We believe the company will continue maintaining good cost control. We adjusted our forecasts and changed our 12-month price target to $13.76 from $15.6 per share. We rate the stock Buy.