We model 4% year over year sales growth in 4Q:F26 to $255.2 million, compared to $245.3 million in the prior year period. We expect Water Treatment to continue leading company performance, supported by sustained organic demand and contributions from recent tuck-in acquisitions.
We lower our 4Q:F26 diluted EPS estimate to $0.79 (from $0.83), modestly below the $0.81 reported in the prior year period. While we acknowledge this represents a 2% year over year decline, we believe it accurately reflects the continued effect of amortization and interest expense associated with the WaterSurplus acquisition. We also lower our F2026 estimate to $4.00 (from $4.05) and maintain our F2027 and F2028 estimates. We believe acquisition-related headwinds from WaterSurplus will subside as Hawkins enters F2027, and we expect the acquisition to become accretive to earnings, consistent with management's guidance.
We expect Hawkins to maintain a strong balance sheet and financial position in 4Q:F26. Total debt declined to $264 million at the end of 3Q:F26 from $279 million at the end of 2Q:F26, while leverage improved to 1.47x from 1.53x over the same period. Subsequent to the quarter, Hawkins announced the acquisition of Aqua-Chem, Inc., a commercial pool water treatment business serving customers in Nebraska and Iowa. We view this tuck-in acquisition as directly consistent with Hawkins' deliberate and proven strategy of adding new Water Treatment facilities.
We maintain our $184 price target, based on an intact 36x our F2028 EPS estimate of $5.10. We justify this multiple relative to the company's 20x five-year average based on its strategy to invest in its higher margin Water Treatment segment. Our moderate risk rating reflects Hawkins' portfolio strategy, historical and projected earnings expansion, healthy balance sheet and consistent dividend payment.
07 May 2026
Trimming Near-Term Estimates As WaterSurplus Costs Persist; Water Treatment Strategy And F2027 Accretion Support Long-Term Earnings Expansion, In Our View; Maintain $184 Price Target
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Trimming Near-Term Estimates As WaterSurplus Costs Persist; Water Treatment Strategy And F2027 Accretion Support Long-Term Earnings Expansion, In Our View; Maintain $184 Price Target
We model 4% year over year sales growth in 4Q:F26 to $255.2 million, compared to $245.3 million in the prior year period. We expect Water Treatment to continue leading company performance, supported by sustained organic demand and contributions from recent tuck-in acquisitions.
We lower our 4Q:F26 diluted EPS estimate to $0.79 (from $0.83), modestly below the $0.81 reported in the prior year period. While we acknowledge this represents a 2% year over year decline, we believe it accurately reflects the continued effect of amortization and interest expense associated with the WaterSurplus acquisition. We also lower our F2026 estimate to $4.00 (from $4.05) and maintain our F2027 and F2028 estimates. We believe acquisition-related headwinds from WaterSurplus will subside as Hawkins enters F2027, and we expect the acquisition to become accretive to earnings, consistent with management's guidance.
We expect Hawkins to maintain a strong balance sheet and financial position in 4Q:F26. Total debt declined to $264 million at the end of 3Q:F26 from $279 million at the end of 2Q:F26, while leverage improved to 1.47x from 1.53x over the same period. Subsequent to the quarter, Hawkins announced the acquisition of Aqua-Chem, Inc., a commercial pool water treatment business serving customers in Nebraska and Iowa. We view this tuck-in acquisition as directly consistent with Hawkins' deliberate and proven strategy of adding new Water Treatment facilities.
We maintain our $184 price target, based on an intact 36x our F2028 EPS estimate of $5.10. We justify this multiple relative to the company's 20x five-year average based on its strategy to invest in its higher margin Water Treatment segment. Our moderate risk rating reflects Hawkins' portfolio strategy, historical and projected earnings expansion, healthy balance sheet and consistent dividend payment.