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  • 01 May 2026

Reduce 2026 and 2027 Estimates On Higher Energy Prices; Maintain $44 Price Target And Moderate Risk Rating


Koppers (KOP:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Sidoti & Company
    • Michael Mathison

    • 11 pages


 

Koppers Holdings, Inc. (KOP) reports earnings May 8. Due to higher energy prices, we decrease our 1Q:26 EPS estimate from $0.34 to $0.33, and decrease our full-year 2026 estimate to $4.31 from $4.37. We also reduce our full-year 2027 estimate to $4.84 from $4.88. We maintain our $44 price target and Moderate risk rating. FactSet's consensus EPS estimate for 1Q:26 is $0.44, $0.11 per share higher than our estimate. We suspect the difference is driven by different views of the seasonality of KOP's revenue. One of KOP's larger exposures to increased energy prices lies in the cost of diesel fuel, which increases the cost of delivering cross ties and utility poles. A second potentially large exposure is in the Carbon Materials and Chemicals (CMC) segment, an energy intensive business. We lack precise information about energy costs as a share of KOP's expenses. For estimating purposes, we have modeled the impact of increased energy costs as a 50 basis point increase in KOP's cost of sales. As of January 2026, KOP's 2025 10-K showed a 3.7% decrease in shares outstanding compared to 4Q:25, partially offsetting the impact of higher energy costs on EPS. We maintain our $44 price target and Moderate risk rating. We derive our price target by applying an approximate 10x multiple to our reduced $4.31 per share estimate for 2026 EPS. Previously, our price target was based on about 10x our prior 2026 EPS estimate of $4.37. Although KOP's total debt to capital ratio currently stands at 62%, a significant share of 2026 free cash flow is earmarked for debt reduction, leaving us comfortable assigning KOP a Moderate risk rating. We forecast that higher energy prices will increase KOP's delivery costs for utility poles and rail crossties. Since the onset of the Mideast conflict, U.S. oil prices (WTI) are up 60%, driving up prices for gasoline, diesel, and other fuels derived from oil. We see the largest impact of higher energy prices on KOP's earnings arising from higher diesel prices. The utility poles and rail crossties that KOP produces are heavy and are delivered by truck. While a portion of delivery costs are borne by customers, delivery costs are not a simple pass-through and a portion of rising diesel costs will be borne by KOP. KOP's CMC segment could also be vulnerable to rising energy costs. CMC's distillation of coal tar to produce creosote and other products is a highly energy intensive business. However, industrial processes such as distillation are typically fueled by natural gas. Natural gas prices are also up globally since the conflict began, and natural gas prices in the U.S. (Henry Hub) have been highly volatile in 1Q:2026. However, as of May 1 U.S. natural gas prices (Henry Hub) are down 9% since the onset of the conflict due to high storage levels, potentially reducing the impact on KOP of higher global prices.

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Reduce 2026 and 2027 Estimates On Higher Energy Prices; Maintain $44 Price Target And Moderate Risk Rating


Koppers (KOP:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 01 May 2026
  • Author: Michael Mathison
  • Pages: 11
  • Sidoti & Company


Koppers Holdings, Inc. (KOP) reports earnings May 8. Due to higher energy prices, we decrease our 1Q:26 EPS estimate from $0.34 to $0.33, and decrease our full-year 2026 estimate to $4.31 from $4.37. We also reduce our full-year 2027 estimate to $4.84 from $4.88. We maintain our $44 price target and Moderate risk rating. FactSet's consensus EPS estimate for 1Q:26 is $0.44, $0.11 per share higher than our estimate. We suspect the difference is driven by different views of the seasonality of KOP's revenue. One of KOP's larger exposures to increased energy prices lies in the cost of diesel fuel, which increases the cost of delivering cross ties and utility poles. A second potentially large exposure is in the Carbon Materials and Chemicals (CMC) segment, an energy intensive business. We lack precise information about energy costs as a share of KOP's expenses. For estimating purposes, we have modeled the impact of increased energy costs as a 50 basis point increase in KOP's cost of sales. As of January 2026, KOP's 2025 10-K showed a 3.7% decrease in shares outstanding compared to 4Q:25, partially offsetting the impact of higher energy costs on EPS. We maintain our $44 price target and Moderate risk rating. We derive our price target by applying an approximate 10x multiple to our reduced $4.31 per share estimate for 2026 EPS. Previously, our price target was based on about 10x our prior 2026 EPS estimate of $4.37. Although KOP's total debt to capital ratio currently stands at 62%, a significant share of 2026 free cash flow is earmarked for debt reduction, leaving us comfortable assigning KOP a Moderate risk rating. We forecast that higher energy prices will increase KOP's delivery costs for utility poles and rail crossties. Since the onset of the Mideast conflict, U.S. oil prices (WTI) are up 60%, driving up prices for gasoline, diesel, and other fuels derived from oil. We see the largest impact of higher energy prices on KOP's earnings arising from higher diesel prices. The utility poles and rail crossties that KOP produces are heavy and are delivered by truck. While a portion of delivery costs are borne by customers, delivery costs are not a simple pass-through and a portion of rising diesel costs will be borne by KOP. KOP's CMC segment could also be vulnerable to rising energy costs. CMC's distillation of coal tar to produce creosote and other products is a highly energy intensive business. However, industrial processes such as distillation are typically fueled by natural gas. Natural gas prices are also up globally since the conflict began, and natural gas prices in the U.S. (Henry Hub) have been highly volatile in 1Q:2026. However, as of May 1 U.S. natural gas prices (Henry Hub) are down 9% since the onset of the conflict due to high storage levels, potentially reducing the impact on KOP of higher global prices.

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