We forecast 4Q:25 sales of $371 million, an adjusted loss per share of $0.12, and adjusted free cash flow (FCF) of $25 million. We view 2025 as a trough year for earnings and cash flow. While we expect 4Q results remain pressured, we believe the foundation for recovery in 2026 is in place through identified cost reductions, portfolio simplification, disciplined Cellulose Specialties (CS) pricing, and incremental contribution from Biomaterials initiatives.
We believe the recent leadership transition reinforces continuity of strategy and sharpens focus on operational execution. Management's priorities remain centered on advancing cost actions, progressing the Biomaterials platform, optimizing the asset base, and improving profitability.
Today, American Industrial Partners (AIP) disclosed a 5.1% ownership stake and revealed that on November 18, 2025, before purchasing shares, it submitted a preliminary, non-binding proposal to acquire 100% of the company for $11.00-$12.00 per share in cash. The proposal contemplated combining RYAM with AIP's recently acquired portfolio company, Global Cellulose Fibers, which AIP agreed to acquire from International Paper (NYSE: IP, NC) in August 2025. On December 11, 2025, the Board rejected the proposal. We believe the Board's decision is consistent with management's previously articulated strategy focused on strengthening the CS and Biomaterials platforms and enhancing long-term earnings power.
RYAM exited 3Q:25 with $140 million of liquidity, including $77 million of cash, and a net secured leverage ratio of 4.1x, below its 5.0x covenant threshold.
We maintain our $9 price target based on 11x enterprise value to our 2027 free cash flow estimate of $125 million, which implies approximately 9x our 2027 EPS estimate of $0.96. Execution in Cellulose Specialties, scaling Biomaterials initiatives, and strengthening the balance sheet support our moderate risk rating.
25 Feb 2026
AIP's 5.1% Ownership Disclosure Highlights Strategic Value As We Expect Earnings Trough To Conclude And 2026–2027 Recovery Framework Remains Intact; Maintain $9 Price Target
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AIP's 5.1% Ownership Disclosure Highlights Strategic Value As We Expect Earnings Trough To Conclude And 2026–2027 Recovery Framework Remains Intact; Maintain $9 Price Target
Rayonier Advanced Materials (RYAM:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
25 Feb 2026 -
Author:
Daniel Harriman -
Pages:
10 -
We forecast 4Q:25 sales of $371 million, an adjusted loss per share of $0.12, and adjusted free cash flow (FCF) of $25 million. We view 2025 as a trough year for earnings and cash flow. While we expect 4Q results remain pressured, we believe the foundation for recovery in 2026 is in place through identified cost reductions, portfolio simplification, disciplined Cellulose Specialties (CS) pricing, and incremental contribution from Biomaterials initiatives.
We believe the recent leadership transition reinforces continuity of strategy and sharpens focus on operational execution. Management's priorities remain centered on advancing cost actions, progressing the Biomaterials platform, optimizing the asset base, and improving profitability.
Today, American Industrial Partners (AIP) disclosed a 5.1% ownership stake and revealed that on November 18, 2025, before purchasing shares, it submitted a preliminary, non-binding proposal to acquire 100% of the company for $11.00-$12.00 per share in cash. The proposal contemplated combining RYAM with AIP's recently acquired portfolio company, Global Cellulose Fibers, which AIP agreed to acquire from International Paper (NYSE: IP, NC) in August 2025. On December 11, 2025, the Board rejected the proposal. We believe the Board's decision is consistent with management's previously articulated strategy focused on strengthening the CS and Biomaterials platforms and enhancing long-term earnings power.
RYAM exited 3Q:25 with $140 million of liquidity, including $77 million of cash, and a net secured leverage ratio of 4.1x, below its 5.0x covenant threshold.
We maintain our $9 price target based on 11x enterprise value to our 2027 free cash flow estimate of $125 million, which implies approximately 9x our 2027 EPS estimate of $0.96. Execution in Cellulose Specialties, scaling Biomaterials initiatives, and strengthening the balance sheet support our moderate risk rating.