RYAM reported 4Q:25 sales of $417 million, down 1.2% year over year but above our estimate of $371 million. The company reported an adjusted loss per share of $0.32 compared to our estimate for a loss of $0.12. The company reported an adjusted free cash outflow of $5 million compared to our expectation for $25 million of adjusted free cash flow.
2025 was difficult operationally and financially. For the full year, RYAM reported sales of $1.466 billion, an adjusted loss of $6.36 per share and an adjusted free cash outflow of $88 million.
We are lowering our 2026 expectations as the company executes a strategic reset. We now model sales of $1.455 billion (from $1.515 billion previously) and an adjusted loss of $0.55 per share compared to our earlier estimate for adjusted EPS of $0.46. We also lower our adjusted free cash flow estimate to $40 million from $105 million previously.
We now expect stronger earnings power in 2027 as strategic initiatives gain traction. We modestly lower our 2027 sales estimate to $1.600 billion (from $1.615 billion previously) but increase our adjusted EPS estimate to $1.25 (from $0.96). We also raise our adjusted free cash flow estimate to $160 million from $125 million previously.
RYAM maintains sufficient liquidity to navigate near-term volatility. The company ended the year with $157 million of global liquidity, including $75 million of cash, $72 million available under its ABL credit facility and $10 million under its French factoring facility. With net secured leverage of 3.9x covenant EBITDA as of year-end, we believe the company has sufficient cushion to manage a potentially weak first quarter while executing its operational initiatives.
We increase our price target on RYAM shares to $15 (from $9), which remains based on an 11x enterprise value to our newly increased 2027 free cash flow estimate of $160 million. Our prior $9 price target was based on an 11x enterprise value to our prior 2027 free cash flow estimate of $125 million. New management, Cellulose Specialties leadership, a scaling Biomaterials platform and the expectation for a healthier balance sheet support our moderate risk rating.
06 Mar 2026
Lower Near-Term Estimates But Raise Our 2027 Outlook As RYAM Executes Strategic Reset Focused On CS Leadership And Asset Optimization, Increase Price Target To $15 (From $9).
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Lower Near-Term Estimates But Raise Our 2027 Outlook As RYAM Executes Strategic Reset Focused On CS Leadership And Asset Optimization, Increase Price Target To $15 (From $9).
Rayonier Advanced Materials (RYAM:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
06 Mar 2026 -
Author:
Daniel Harriman -
Pages:
10 -
RYAM reported 4Q:25 sales of $417 million, down 1.2% year over year but above our estimate of $371 million. The company reported an adjusted loss per share of $0.32 compared to our estimate for a loss of $0.12. The company reported an adjusted free cash outflow of $5 million compared to our expectation for $25 million of adjusted free cash flow.
2025 was difficult operationally and financially. For the full year, RYAM reported sales of $1.466 billion, an adjusted loss of $6.36 per share and an adjusted free cash outflow of $88 million.
We are lowering our 2026 expectations as the company executes a strategic reset. We now model sales of $1.455 billion (from $1.515 billion previously) and an adjusted loss of $0.55 per share compared to our earlier estimate for adjusted EPS of $0.46. We also lower our adjusted free cash flow estimate to $40 million from $105 million previously.
We now expect stronger earnings power in 2027 as strategic initiatives gain traction. We modestly lower our 2027 sales estimate to $1.600 billion (from $1.615 billion previously) but increase our adjusted EPS estimate to $1.25 (from $0.96). We also raise our adjusted free cash flow estimate to $160 million from $125 million previously.
RYAM maintains sufficient liquidity to navigate near-term volatility. The company ended the year with $157 million of global liquidity, including $75 million of cash, $72 million available under its ABL credit facility and $10 million under its French factoring facility. With net secured leverage of 3.9x covenant EBITDA as of year-end, we believe the company has sufficient cushion to manage a potentially weak first quarter while executing its operational initiatives.
We increase our price target on RYAM shares to $15 (from $9), which remains based on an 11x enterprise value to our newly increased 2027 free cash flow estimate of $160 million. Our prior $9 price target was based on an 11x enterprise value to our prior 2027 free cash flow estimate of $125 million. New management, Cellulose Specialties leadership, a scaling Biomaterials platform and the expectation for a healthier balance sheet support our moderate risk rating.